Estudo das vazões máximas da bacia do rio iguaçu utilizando a distribuição generalizada de valores extremos e momentos-LH

Abstract

The Iguaçu River is considered the largest watercourse in the state of Paraná, in addition, it contains several buses along its length. Therefore, studies on the maximum flows in the Iguaçu river are very important. Therefore, this study made a study of the maximum annual flows using the Generalized Distribution of Extreme Values (GEV), and its parameters and quality of fit test were performed using Moments-LH. Fourteen fluviometric stations were studied. From these, it was estimated the parameters of the GEV distribution and the Wang test, which showed that all the stations were adjusted with 5% significance. Next, the quantiles for the Gumbel distribution were estimated for comparison with the GEV distribution. In addition, the predictive capacity of the distributions was evaluated using bootstrapping. Finally, the study showed that up to 100 years of return period, it is possible to model the data obtained in the region of the Iguaçu river basin using the GEV and Gumbel distributions, and for a longer return period the GEV distribution should be given preference due to its better capacity predictive.