Análise de crédito por meios de modelos de previsão de insolvência no ramo varejo

Abstract

The present work aims to evaluate if the Insolvency forecasting models are sufficient and determinant in the credit assessment for companies in the retail sector. Five forecasting models were analyzed: Elizabetsky (1976); Kanitz (1978); Matias (1979), Sanvicente and Minardi (1998) and Guimarães and Alves (2009). The research characterized as descriptive, has quantitative approach conducted through documentary and bibliographical research. The sample comprised eight publicly traded companies from various segments from 2014 to 2018; data were collected on the BOVESPA website and on the organizations website. The results obtained indicate that Insolvency models cannot be the only instrument of analysis, a set of techniques should be used, tools that assist in granting credit. It is necessary to take into account economic situations, Indebtedness and Liquidity ratios for the models to have greater validity. The study shows that according to the Person coefficient, the companies studied had variations and disagreements between the results, since most companies presented negative correlation, that is, when one variable rises the other always decreases, based on the analyzes and comparisons, it can It can be concluded that the indebtedness index variables and the insolvency forecasting model equations do not depend on each other, therefore they are variables that should be analyzed together for credit granting, however, the possible causes of indebtedness should be investigated.