Previsão da demanda de vendas de veículos novos de uma concessionária do sudoeste do Paraná

Abstract

This work presents the apllication of a methodology for demand forecasting sales ofnew vehicles from a dealership, beyond the analysis of the results obtained by methods chosen. The main objective was to decrease the number of sales made through requests, which take 90-120 days to be delivered to customers. There are 27 models of vehicles studied, where many of these have low demand, containing months of null sales. To make the demand analysis was necessery to add vehicles into 3 categories, to minimize the error such these null sales. For category 1, composed of vehicles with lower market value, but with higher turnover, the model applied became effective, with MAPE around 17%. For categories 2 and 3, composed of vehicles with higher market value, and very low demand, generated MAPE very low, and the model wasn´t satisfactory. For becoming effective for the category with the largest turnover, the sales made by request decrease considerably if applied by dealership.