Análise prospectiva de políticas públicas (A3P): o caso do setor de software do Paraná

Abstract

There is much evidence of the effectiveness of prospective studies (Foresight) in the private sector. However, this statement may not be extrapolated to the reality of the public sector. Currently, researchers from prospective area want to understand how future studies are used in the policy analysis, and what is its effectiveness in the whole process. Hypothesis related to political cycles do not fully explain the not achieved results with Foresight because some governments that remained in power also did not obtain satisfactory results. Prospective studies are used in the initial stage of policy analysis, in other words, on the agenda setting, not advancing consistently to the remaining steps of the process. Given this context, the issue that guided this thesis can be characterized as: how the prospective approach could be more effective in developing public policies? In this sense, this thesis aims to propose a prospective approach more effective in the development of public policies. This is an exploratory-descriptive study, in the form of a case study (Software Sector of the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba). Sixty-eight actors were interviewed: 34 business owners and entrepreneurs of the software sector and 34 actors related to sectoral policy (policy makers). The results indicated the need for a more concrete approach based on the Realistic Proactivity concept, in other words, a foresight approach feasible and aligned with the political and institutional context. The study also shows that there is a need of approach stakeholders (policy makers and policy users), reducing differences in understanding the development process of sectoral public policies. Lack of knowledge of institutional issues involving public policies creates an Idealistic Foresight approach, based on wishes and lamentations. Finally, a change in the prospective model is suggested, with the insertion of a study validation stage by the policy makers and the establishment of a governance process.