Estudo comparativo de viabilidade econômica entre uma usina eólica e uma usina híbrida (eólica-fotovoltaica)

Abstract

In recent years a strong economic expansion in Brazil was found, tending to remain especially in commercial and industrial sectors, holders of higher energy demands, according to the Ten Year Energy Plan – PDE (2020). This will result in an estimated annual increment to the National Integrated System (SIN) in the order of 4.6% between the years 2010 and 2020, reaching a value of 88,596 MW in 2020 compared to 56,577 MW recorded in 2010. Thus, the Energy Research Company – EPE (2010) estimates that in order to meet the demand a yearly addition of around 3,200 MW is required to the SIN. Based on the previously exposed data, in order to quickly increase SIN demand and give more reliability to the system as a way to avoid possible blackouts, as the one in 2001, the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) decided to diversify the energy matrix, promoting the construction of wind, thermal and more recently, solar plants. However, about one third of the projects is delayed and may cause future problems to supply and demand (ANEEL, 2011). Moreover, with the enactment of Law 12.187/09, which instituted the National Policy on Climate Change, a goal of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from 36.1% to 38.9% by 2020 was set. Thus, the Brazilian government encouraged investors to apply their resources in renewable energy sources (mainly hydro and wind), with the creation of the Incentive Program for Alternative Sources (PROINFA), in 2006. These contexts suggest that the hybrid generation (wind and solar) helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase energy demand for the SIN, helping to provide greater reliability to the National Electric System. Therefore, this project makes a comparison between the analysis of the economic viability of wind farm and how much can be gained from the increment (photovoltaic), thus making this a hybrid site. The region chosen was Caetité (BA), as it is located in an area with favorable wind conditions and good insolation rates, in addition to being close to a 230 kV transmission line, a connection point to the National Interconnected System (SIN). In order to have financial analysis software was used to compute the occurrence of the financial analysis software was used RETScreen computer program developed by a Canadian university together with NASA, was used to calculate the payback period, internal rate of return (IRR), cost-benefit ratio, and net present value (NPV) of wind farms and complementary systems (photovoltaic). With the completion of the financial analysis of solar generation, it was possible to compare the results with wind generation. The results point towards a low reliability of the system and a capacity factor around 17% to 18% in that region.