Previsão de demanda em uma empresa de produção de peças para implementos agrícolas

Abstract

The demand forecast is being increasingly used in the business context, since it is of great importance to the strategic planning of production, aiming to stay active and competitive in the market. This paper presents the quantitative method demand forecast and its advantages. Historical sales data of farm machinery parts company were analyzed located in the western region of Paraná, specialized in manufacturing parts for planters. The data analysis identified the main agricultural activities in the region, reflecting the use of machines that consume these parts, thus identifying the main factors involving these activities and pointing out the best quantitative model to forecast demand for such activity, in this case model holt-winters. Consequently they were provided for the demands and identified the parameters of smoothing of parts for agricultural machinery soybean and corn. Use of holt-winters model was satisfactory, with the financial advantage by its low cost and the impact of the company's image in the market.